Do Private Foundation Grants Increase When They Repeat?

When a private foundation appears to fund a nonprofit in consecutive years, does the reported amount usually increase the next year?

In our analysis of 1.63 million matched foundation-recipient pairs with positive grants in adjacent tax years, the answer depended on the previous year’s total. Totals up to $1,000 were more likely to increase than decrease. Totals over $25,000 were more likely to decrease than increase. In both groups, the most common result was that the reported total stayed exactly the same.

That is a pattern in reported tax filings, not a forecast of what a foundation will do next. It can still help put a single grant in context: compare several years of reported giving before treating one amount as typical.

How often did reported grant totals change?

We compared each foundation’s reported total to the same nonprofit in one tax year with its total to that nonprofit in the following tax year. We grouped comparisons by the earlier year’s amount.

When the previous total was $1,000 or less (376,918 comparisons), the next year’s total increased 34.3% of the time, decreased 15.9%, and stayed exactly the same 49.8% of the time.

For totals over $1,000 and up to $5,000 (465,454 comparisons), 30.8% increased, 22.3% decreased, and 46.9% were unchanged.

For totals over $5,000 and up to $10,000 (222,756 comparisons), 29.7% increased, 25.7% decreased, and 44.6% were unchanged.

For totals over $10,000 and up to $25,000 (234,529 comparisons), 31.5% increased, 29.8% decreased, and 38.7% were unchanged.

For totals over $25,000 (333,916 comparisons), 31.5% increased, 39.0% decreased, and 29.5% were unchanged.

Across all five prior-year amount groups, unchanged totals were the most common outcome. But the balance between increases and decreases shifted with the previous amount. In each annual comparison from 2017-2018 through 2023-2024, totals up to $1,000 increased more often than they decreased, while totals above $25,000 decreased more often than they increased.

What this pattern can tell a grant researcher

One year’s grant amount is not necessarily a foundation’s typical amount to a particular organization. A larger payment could be followed by a smaller one; a small payment could be followed by a larger one. The record alone does not tell you whether this reflects a formal renewal, a multi-year award paid in installments, a new project, or some other decision.

For prospect research, use the reported history as context rather than a promise. Look at several tax years, note the range of amounts, and check the foundation’s current guidelines or website before deciding whether to pursue an opportunity. Our guide to finding nonprofit grant data covers other ways to use grant records when evaluating funders.

About the data

This comparison uses private foundation grant information reported to the IRS on Form 990-PF filings for tax years 2017 through 2024. It follows reported totals to the same recipient in consecutive years. IRS filings describe past reported grants, not a foundation’s future plans or whether a grant was formally renewed. See the IRS Instructions for Form 990-PF.

Use the history as context when researching a funder, and check its current priorities and application information before pursuing an opportunity.